W from · 271° · 10.1 s
Little Rincon / Mussel Shoals.
Point / reef
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Forecast & tide at a glance
Estimated surf face · feet · Pacific time. The existing PureSurfers face-estimation engine; not a measured or calibrated breaking-wave report.
READ THE INDIVIDUAL SWELLS
Swell by swell.
Offshore component height (Hs), not surf-face height. Directions are where waves come from. Component heights do not add together.
Wed Nov 11, 9:00pm Pacific
GFS · 4 components
No energy reported for this component
SSW from · 194° · 15.2 s
SSW from · 203° · 11.8 s
MFWAM · 2 components
W from · 273° · 9.9 s
No energy reported for this component
Each model supplies its own partitions. Missing components remain unavailable; another model’s primary swell is not automatically the same wave system.
Coastal wind retrieved Wed Nov 11, 9:30pm. This is regional modeled wind, not a beach measurement.
Source retrievals: GFS Nov 11, 9:30pm · ECMWF Nov 11, 9:15pm · MFWAM Nov 11, 9:30pm. Retrieval time is not the model issue time. This page combines all available cached model families; map model selections are separate.
Tide predictions: Santa Barbara, 24 km reference; retrieved Wed Nov 11, 7:30pm. Station predictions can differ locally.
Seven-day overview
| Pacific day | Estimated surf face | Mean wind | Hours available |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 11 | 2.4 ft | 5.2 mph | 14/14 |
| Thu Nov 12 | 2.3 ft | 6.4 mph | 14/14 |
| Fri Nov 13 | 3.2 ft | 6.7 mph | 14/14 |
| Sat Nov 14 | 5.2 ft | 3.6 mph | 14/14 |
| Sun Nov 15 | 3.2 ft | 5.3 mph | 14/14 |
| Mon Nov 16 | 4.4 ft | 3.0 mph | 14/14 |
| Tue Nov 17 | 3.3 ft | 5.7 mph | 14/14 |
Hourly details · next 72 hours
| Pacific time | Estimated surf face | Model range | Set proxy | Swell from | Wind | Tide MLLW | Models |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 9:00pm | 2.3 ft | 1.2–3.2 ft | 3.4 ft | W · 12.2 s | 1.7 mph E | 2.2 ft | 3 |
| Wed 10:00pm | 2.2 ft | 1.2–3.1 ft | 3.4 ft | W · 12.1 s | 2.0 mph SSE | 2.9 ft | 3 |
| Wed 11:00pm | 2.2 ft | 1.2–3.0 ft | 3.3 ft | W · 12.0 s | 2.5 mph E | 3.3 ft | 3 |
| Thu 12:00am | 2.2 ft | 1.2–2.9 ft | 3.2 ft | W · 12.0 s | 4.5 mph NW | 3.4 ft | 3 |
| Thu 1:00am | 2.1 ft | 1.1–2.8 ft | 3.2 ft | W · 12.0 s | 4.0 mph NNE | 3.4 ft | 3 |
| Thu 2:00am | 2.1 ft | 1.1–2.8 ft | 3.1 ft | W · 11.9 s | 4.9 mph NE | 3.2 ft | 3 |
| Thu 3:00am | 2.0 ft | 1.1–2.7 ft | 3.1 ft | W · 11.9 s | 6.9 mph NE | 3.0 ft | 3 |
| Thu 4:00am | 2.0 ft | 1.1–2.6 ft | 3.0 ft | W · 11.8 s | 5.8 mph ENE | 3.0 ft | 3 |
| Thu 5:00am | 2.0 ft | 1.1–2.6 ft | 3.0 ft | W · 11.7 s | 4.4 mph ENE | 3.3 ft | 3 |
| Thu 6:00am | 2.0 ft | 1.0–2.6 ft | 3.0 ft | W · 11.7 s | 7.0 mph ENE | 3.7 ft | 3 |
| Thu 7:00am | 2.0 ft | 1.1–2.6 ft | 3.0 ft | W · 11.6 s | 7.3 mph ENE | 4.3 ft | 3 |
| Thu 8:00am | 2.0 ft | 1.1–2.6 ft | 3.1 ft | W · 11.7 s | 5.6 mph ENE | 4.9 ft | 3 |
| Thu 9:00am | 2.1 ft | 1.1–2.7 ft | 3.2 ft | W · 11.7 s | 4.9 mph SSE | 5.4 ft | 3 |
| Thu 10:00am | 2.1 ft | 1.2–2.7 ft | 3.2 ft | W · 11.8 s | 7.9 mph SSE | 5.6 ft | 3 |
| Thu 11:00am | 2.2 ft | 1.1–2.8 ft | 3.3 ft | W · 11.9 s | 9.4 mph S | 5.4 ft | 3 |
| Thu 12:00pm | 2.3 ft | 1.3–2.8 ft | 3.4 ft | W · 12.0 s | 9.1 mph S | 4.8 ft | 3 |
| Thu 1:00pm | 2.3 ft | 1.3–2.9 ft | 3.5 ft | W · 12.1 s | 7.0 mph SSW | 3.9 ft | 3 |
| Thu 2:00pm | 2.2 ft | 1.0–2.9 ft | 3.4 ft | W · 12.2 s | 6.0 mph SSW | 2.8 ft | 3 |
| Thu 3:00pm | 2.4 ft | 1.4–3.0 ft | 3.7 ft | W · 12.4 s | 4.6 mph S | 1.7 ft | 3 |
| Thu 4:00pm | 2.5 ft | 1.4–3.1 ft | 3.7 ft | W · 12.5 s | 5.1 mph SSE | 0.8 ft | 3 |
| Thu 5:00pm | 2.4 ft | 1.1–3.1 ft | 3.6 ft | W · 12.7 s | 4.8 mph SE | 0.2 ft | 3 |
| Thu 6:00pm | 2.4 ft | 0.9–3.2 ft | 3.6 ft | W · 12.9 s | 4.8 mph ESE | 0.0 ft | 3 |
| Thu 7:00pm | 2.5 ft | 1.0–3.2 ft | 3.7 ft | W · 13.0 s | 5.9 mph E | 0.3 ft | 3 |
| Thu 8:00pm | 2.6 ft | 1.3–3.3 ft | 3.9 ft | W · 13.2 s | 5.9 mph E | 0.8 ft | 3 |
| Thu 9:00pm | 2.7 ft | 1.4–3.4 ft | 4.1 ft | W · 13.4 s | 5.6 mph E | 1.6 ft | 3 |
| Thu 10:00pm | 2.7 ft | 1.1–3.5 ft | 4.0 ft | W · 13.5 s | 6.9 mph ENE | 2.3 ft | 3 |
| Thu 11:00pm | 2.8 ft | 1.3–3.6 ft | 4.2 ft | W · 13.5 s | 8.7 mph NE | 2.9 ft | 3 |
| Fri 12:00am | 2.8 ft | 1.1–3.7 ft | 4.2 ft | W · 13.5 s | 10.3 mph NE | 3.2 ft | 3 |
| Fri 1:00am | 2.8 ft | 1.1–3.8 ft | 4.2 ft | W · 13.4 s | 10.6 mph ENE | 3.4 ft | 3 |
| Fri 2:00am | 2.9 ft | 1.2–3.9 ft | 4.3 ft | W · 13.3 s | 8.5 mph ENE | 3.3 ft | 3 |
| Fri 3:00am | 3.2 ft | 1.9–4.0 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 13.2 s | 9.0 mph E | 3.2 ft | 3 |
| Fri 4:00am | 3.1 ft | 1.6–4.0 ft | 4.7 ft | W · 13.1 s | 10.7 mph ENE | 3.2 ft | 3 |
| Fri 5:00am | 3.3 ft | 2.1–4.1 ft | 5.0 ft | W · 13.0 s | 11.7 mph NE | 3.3 ft | 3 |
| Fri 6:00am | 3.3 ft | 2.1–4.1 ft | 5.0 ft | W · 12.8 s | 7.6 mph NNE | 3.5 ft | 3 |
| Fri 7:00am | 3.1 ft | 1.5–4.1 ft | 4.7 ft | W · 12.7 s | 11.1 mph NE | 4.0 ft | 3 |
| Fri 8:00am | 3.1 ft | 1.5–4.1 ft | 4.7 ft | W · 12.6 s | 9.0 mph ENE | 4.5 ft | 3 |
| Fri 9:00am | 3.1 ft | 1.5–4.1 ft | 4.7 ft | W · 12.6 s | 10.0 mph ENE | 4.9 ft | 3 |
| Fri 10:00am | 3.1 ft | 1.5–4.1 ft | 4.7 ft | W · 12.5 s | 6.7 mph E | 5.2 ft | 3 |
| Fri 11:00am | 3.3 ft | 2.2–4.1 ft | 5.0 ft | W · 12.5 s | 8.0 mph SE | 5.2 ft | 3 |
| Fri 12:00pm | 3.3 ft | 2.1–4.0 ft | 4.9 ft | W · 12.4 s | 6.8 mph S | 4.9 ft | 3 |
| Fri 1:00pm | 3.3 ft | 2.2–4.0 ft | 4.9 ft | W · 12.4 s | 5.5 mph WSW | 4.3 ft | 3 |
| Fri 2:00pm | 3.3 ft | 2.2–4.1 ft | 4.9 ft | W · 12.2 s | 4.2 mph NNW | 3.4 ft | 3 |
| Fri 3:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.2–4.0 ft | 4.9 ft | W · 12.1 s | 6.8 mph SSW | 2.5 ft | 3 |
| Fri 4:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.2–4.0 ft | 4.9 ft | W · 11.9 s | 6.4 mph SW | 1.5 ft | 3 |
| Fri 5:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.2–4.0 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 11.8 s | 3.4 mph SW | 0.8 ft | 3 |
| Fri 6:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.4–4.0 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 11.7 s | 3.4 mph WNW | 0.3 ft | 3 |
| Fri 7:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.3–4.0 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 11.6 s | 5.2 mph WNW | 0.3 ft | 3 |
| Fri 8:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.3–4.0 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 11.3 s | 5.1 mph NW | 0.5 ft | 3 |
| Fri 9:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.3–4.0 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 11.0 s | 4.5 mph NW | 1.1 ft | 3 |
| Fri 10:00pm | 3.2 ft | 2.3–4.1 ft | 4.8 ft | W · 10.9 s | 4.1 mph NW | 1.7 ft | 3 |
| Fri 11:00pm | 3.3 ft | 2.2–4.2 ft | 4.9 ft | W · 10.9 s | 3.0 mph NW | 2.3 ft | 3 |
| Sat 12:00am | 3.4 ft | 2.2–4.4 ft | 5.1 ft | W · 11.1 s | 3.4 mph W | 2.9 ft | 3 |
| Sat 1:00am | 3.5 ft | 2.2–4.6 ft | 5.3 ft | W · 11.3 s | 4.1 mph WNW | 3.2 ft | 3 |
| Sat 2:00am | 3.7 ft | 2.2–4.8 ft | 5.5 ft | W · 11.5 s | 4.0 mph NW | 3.4 ft | 3 |
| Sat 3:00am | 3.9 ft | 2.2–5.2 ft | 5.9 ft | W · 11.7 s | 2.1 mph NNE | 3.4 ft | 3 |
| Sat 4:00am | 4.1 ft | 2.3–5.4 ft | 6.2 ft | W · 12.0 s | 0.7 mph ENE | 3.3 ft | 3 |
| Sat 5:00am | 4.4 ft | 2.4–5.7 ft | 6.5 ft | W · 12.5 s | 0.7 mph ENE | 3.3 ft | 3 |
| Sat 6:00am | 4.6 ft | 2.5–5.9 ft | 6.9 ft | W · 13.0 s | 2.2 mph NNE | 3.5 ft | 3 |
| Sat 7:00am | 4.9 ft | 2.7–6.2 ft | 7.3 ft | W · 13.5 s | 3.3 mph NNE | 3.7 ft | 3 |
| Sat 8:00am | 5.1 ft | 2.9–6.4 ft | 7.6 ft | W · 14.0 s | 2.8 mph ENE | 4.0 ft | 3 |
| Sat 9:00am | 5.2 ft | 3.0–6.5 ft | 7.8 ft | W · 14.3 s | 3.9 mph ESE | 4.4 ft | 3 |
| Sat 10:00am | 5.4 ft | 3.1–6.7 ft | 8.0 ft | W · 14.6 s | 5.8 mph SE | 4.7 ft | 3 |
| Sat 11:00am | 5.4 ft | 3.2–6.8 ft | 8.1 ft | W · 14.8 s | 6.4 mph SSE | 4.9 ft | 3 |
| Sat 12:00pm | 5.4 ft | 3.2–6.9 ft | 8.2 ft | W · 14.9 s | 5.3 mph S | 4.8 ft | 3 |
| Sat 1:00pm | 5.5 ft | 3.3–7.0 ft | 8.2 ft | W · 14.9 s | 4.9 mph S | 4.5 ft | 3 |
| Sat 2:00pm | 5.5 ft | 3.3–7.0 ft | 8.2 ft | W · 14.9 s | 4.2 mph S | 3.9 ft | 3 |
| Sat 3:00pm | 5.4 ft | 3.2–7.0 ft | 8.1 ft | W · 14.8 s | 3.5 mph SSE | 3.1 ft | 3 |
| Sat 4:00pm | 5.4 ft | 3.2–7.0 ft | 8.1 ft | W · 14.7 s | 3.0 mph S | 2.3 ft | 3 |
| Sat 5:00pm | 5.3 ft | 3.2–6.9 ft | 8.0 ft | W · 14.5 s | 2.2 mph S | 1.5 ft | 3 |
| Sat 6:00pm | 5.2 ft | 3.1–6.9 ft | 7.8 ft | W · 14.3 s | 1.2 mph SE | 0.9 ft | 3 |
| Sat 7:00pm | 5.2 ft | 3.1–6.8 ft | 7.8 ft | W · 14.1 s | 2.4 mph ESE | 0.5 ft | 3 |
| Sat 8:00pm | 5.1 ft | 3.1–6.6 ft | 7.6 ft | W · 13.9 s | 3.7 mph ESE | 0.5 ft | 3 |
| Sat 9:00pm | 5.0 ft | 3.1–6.4 ft | 7.5 ft | W · 13.7 s | 3.8 mph E | 0.7 ft | 3 |
Model spread is not a confidence interval. Tide and wind are context, not new corrections to surf size. Larger sets and changing hazards remain possible.
This page reads the shared cache first. Refresh requests only this spot’s existing regional samples.
Know the spot
A compact, fast right that earns the Little Rincon name when west energy wraps into Mussel Shoals.
Also known as Mussel Shoals · Little Rincon.
- Break type
- Point / reef
- Wave direction
- Right
- Reported difficulty
- Advanced
- Bottom
- Rock, cobble & reef
- Reported swell preference
- W–WNW
- Reported tide preference
- Low–mid
The wave can be hollow, sectiony and much less forgiving than Rincon. It is a genuine point wave, not a beginner version of its namesake.
Before paddling out: Rocks, fast end section, pier/structure hazards, parking constraints, localism and sharks.
Public coastal access near Mussel Shoals—verify current parking Documented point-zone coordinate
Source references
- Surfline — Ventura surf and beach guide ↗
- The Surf Atlas — Ventura break guide ↗
- Surf-Forecast — Little Rincon ↗
Provenance is not proof that every inherited claim or current access condition has been rechecked.
THE FIELD GUIDE / Little Rincon / Mussel Shoals
Read this stretch of coast.
Follow the swell window
The catalogue’s reported preference for Little Rincon / Mussel Shoals is “W–WNW”. Compare that description with each component’s incoming direction and period. An offshore swell number is a reference; the local wave still depends on the actual shoreline, bottom and tide.
Check the water level
Reported tide preference: Low–mid. Follow the named NOAA station and its trend through your intended session, then inspect the entry and exit at the beach. A station prediction is not a water-level sensor at this takeoff.
Read the bottom and the lineup
Catalogue bottom: Rock, cobble & reef. Reported difficulty: Advanced. Watch several sets before choosing where to enter, keep clear of riders, and compare the actual wave with your ability and equipment.
A useful note for next time
Record the section you actually surfed, the time, incoming swell direction and period, wind and tide trend. Add what the wave did: connected sections, closeouts, drift or exposed obstacles. Comparing that observation with the same model next time is more useful than treating one colored number as the whole session.
Camera references nearby
Carpinteria Beach stills ↗
City of Carpinteria / Video Monitoring · about 9.2 km from the catalogue pin · periodic-stills
City beach images, rather than a continuous video stream.
Links to third-party camera pages, not owned feeds. Proximity does not confirm the camera sees this break. Playback and image freshness have not been verified by this page.
Make the next session easier
Lineup etiquette · Paddling technique · How these forecasts work
Nearby spots to compare
PureSurfers is built by Peter Ochabski. Spot profiles combine retained sources and contributor observations; this is not a claim he has surfed or verified every entry.
COASTAL WAVE GUIDANCE
Waves at the model cells
1.90–4.20 ftSignificant wave height (Hs) before the legacy spot reduction. This is not a measured breaking-face or set range.








